State population “estimates” based on new housing contruction, not occupation – but Mark Orme still claims he has “hard numbers” on Camp Fire evacuation

10 May

I’m sorry to sound like a broken record, but again Chico staff is blaming our financial problems on the Camp Fire evacuees, and the Enterprise Record/Mercury Register are providing the spin.

State: Chico’s population grows by more than 19,000

State: Chico’s population grows by more than 19,000″

“Most growth from Camp Fire survivors”

“Last week, the state Department of Finance released the figures, with Chico having grown by 20.7 percent as of Jan. 1, 2019. The population as of the new year was 112,111, according to the state, up by an estimated 19,250 people from a year earlier.”

Ah, again, there’s that key word, “ estimated”. But, city manager Mark Orme continues to use the words “hard numbers”…

“City Manager Mark Orme told the City Council Tuesday that it was “a huge relief” to actually have hard numbers rather than suppositions or assumptions.

I don’t know what to call that, is it a lie, or just a fib, or just misleading? I mean, anybody who reads the story will see the word “estimate” repeatedly. Furthermore, below they admit that their “estimate” includes “people moving into Chico for other reasons.

“The state figure is an estimate, but also includes people moving into Chico for other reasons.”

Reporter Laura Urseny says, “The state came to those figures by gathering data from other government agencies, such as the Department of Motor Vehicles, as well as local and county government agencies.”

But if this is true, why do they need to make estimates? I had to ask Mark Orme for the actual report – he sent me a press release.

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/e-1-2019-press-release-1556737607.pdf

These population estimates are produced annually by the Department of Finance for use by local
areas to calculate their annual appropriations limit. The State Controller’s Office uses Finance’s
estimates to update their population figures for distribution of state subventions to cities and
counties, and to comply with various state codes. Additionally, estimates are used for research
and planning purposes by federal, state, and local agencies, the academic community, and the
private sector.”

Furthermore, these “estimates” are not based on any poll of human beings, but on the number of houses built. You know the popular adage – if you build it they will come. They actually “estimate” the occupancy of houses built and even the number of people living in each house. 

“Changes to the housing stock are used in the preparation of the annual city population estimates.
Estimated occupancy of housing units and the number of persons per household further
determine population levels. Changes in city housing stock result from new construction,
demolitions, housing unit conversions, and annexations. The sub-county population estimates
are then adjusted to be consistent with independently produced county estimates.”

And did you read that – they then “adjust” their estimates to “be consistent” with each other. 

So, the whole report is BS, and then  Urseny adds her spin, for (BS)(BS)! (BS squared)

So, before you read the ER again, take one of these – still available on Amazon.com

My mom gave me these little pills.

2 Responses to “State population “estimates” based on new housing contruction, not occupation – but Mark Orme still claims he has “hard numbers” on Camp Fire evacuation”

  1. Scott Rushing May 11, 2019 at 2:38 pm #

    The City of Chico recently paid the mother of Breanne Sharpe, Mindy Lohsee, a one million dollar settlement for Chico police department officer Scott Zuschin’s shooting of Breanne. Scott Zuschin is now posting to FB as a member of Chico First. Very troubling.

    The taxpayers are on the hook for increased premiums to the Joint Power Authority that insures liability claims for the City of Chico as well as deductibles paid for settlements regarding officer-involved shootings.

    As I have revealed in past message to the media and politicians, Butte County had seven civilians killed in officer-involved shootings in 2017 and 2018. By contrast, the City of Oxnard, with a similar population, had no officer-involved shootings in 2017 and 2018. In my opinion, the difference is the weak leadership of CPD Chief O’Brien who is clamoring for more officers but not promising higher quality officers to protect taxpayers from crime and claims. *Scott Rushing*

    On Fri, May 10, 2019 at 5:53 AM Chico Taxpayers Association wrote:

    > Juanita Sumner posted: “I’m sorry to sound like a broken record, but again > Chico staff is blaming our financial problems on the Camp Fire evacuees, > and the Enterprise Record is providing the spin. “State: Chico’s population > grows by more than 19,000” “Most growth from Camp Fir” >

    • Juanita Sumner May 11, 2019 at 3:51 pm #

      Thanks, I agree – very troubling. I get frustrated with citizens who believe adding officers to the force will somehow end the crime problem. I’d rather have higher quality cops. We need to raise the education requirements. We need to require an annual physical and psychiatric evaluation. I’d like to see their prescriptions on the public record, as well as all citizen complaints. I think we could have better police if we demanded more.

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